PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Democratic Party 99%-0.2ptEn tête parmi 8 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
20,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneSpread
0.8 pt
Spread serréComments
0
Variation 7j
-0.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
29 janv. 26, 0:343 nov. 26, 0:00
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm Democratic Party 96% · 2 plateformes · bande de 1 pt
- Également disponible sur Limitless — WI-04 House Election Winner · Democratic Party 99%
Marchés ouverts
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt15.2%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 160,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 845,4 k €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+2.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,5 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt14%
+125 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro32.4%
- Renan Santos+0.2pt4.9%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio+0.4pt12%
+125 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt45.3%
- Marco Rubio-3.0pt21.1%
- Ron DeSantis-0.2pt5.3%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 50,3 M €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour WI-04 House Election Winner ?
- Polymarket cote Democratic Party à 99% au 22 août 2026.
- Quand WI-04 House Election Winner sera-t-il résolu ?
- WI-04 House Election Winner doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment WI-04 House Election Winner est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Où WI-04 House Election Winner est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Limitless.