PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 100%
Qualite du marche
79 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
943,3 €
Liquidité
9,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
99.6% / 99.8%
Spread
0.2%
Spread serréVariation 7j
+1.7%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
23 déc. 25, 22:4631 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
100%
0%
Résultat choisi
Yes100%
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
ECB rate hike in 2026?
6mo
97.9%
2.1%
Prévision communautaire15 prévisionnistesType: binary
Volume total8,2 k €
Volume 24h1 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.