Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%+0.0pt
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
74,9 €
Liquidité
1,7 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
2.0% / 7.2%
Spread
5.2 pt
Spread largeVariation 7j
-0.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
2 avr. 26, 19:5431 déc. 26, 17:00
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes5%
Comparer les plateformes· No
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Faible | 95% | +90pt | 74,9 € | 1,7 k € | il y a 4 minutes | |
 Futuur88% de correspondance · auto | Faible | 96% | +91pt | 4,5 € | 577,6 € | il y a 24 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Futuur
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
5mo
96%
4%
32 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total5,4 €
Volume 24h4,5 €
FUTUURRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$859 juil.6j de données27 juil.
Cryptos liées
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.