Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleThe Man Who Killed Don Quioxte 61.5%En tête parmi 21 options
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète25 août 26, 03:08 UTC31 déc. 30, 18:53 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Zvi Mowshowitz Podcast/Interview 2026 Appearances
Manifold MarketsWill Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?
Manifold MarketsWill Zvi Mowshowitz ever eat his real hat?
Manifold MarketsWill Zvi Mowshowitz be diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Manifold MarketsJimmy Kimmel: Fired in 2026?
KalshiAI generates full movie before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)
- Films resolve NO if I see them and do not award them with a Like, which almost always implies 3.5 or fewer stars.
- Films resolve NO if I have enough information that I am 90%+ confident they would resolve NO AND 90%+ confident that I would have be rather forced into seeing them or finishing them.
- Films I am 95%+ confident I will not see by Dec 1, 2030 unless forced to, but where I am insufficiently confident to resolve NO, will resolve to a percentage I think is fair, by default market price but if I think it's wrong I will override.
- I plan to edit/refine from here as I go if this proves interesting, or to stop paying new bounties if this proves too fiddly or otherwise not worth it, but here goes:
- Bounties (size TBD, but minimum full refund of market costs for fully marginal cases, scaling much higher for higher value finds I would have otherwise missed) will be paid for non-obvious films that get 3.5+ stars I would have otherwise not seen, scaling higher for more stars, and as the answer becomes less obvious, if you suggest a film via question creation, or for movies that get 4+ stars that are non-obvious even if it turns out I've already seen them, so long as you had no easy way of knowing that.
