Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard16 sept. 23, 20:03 UTC1 janv. 34, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US stock market increase ≥3x by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI: >1% of US Stock Market (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAI: >1% of US Stock Market (2050)
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
KalshiRègles
For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.
- Intraday extrema will be used to resolve this question, not closing or opening prices.
- Note: The start date of that decade can predate market creation.
- For example, if the SPX dropped below 1,729.44 on Monday, September 18th, 2023 (2 days after market creation), then the question would resolve to YES, since the high-point on September 18th, 2013, was 1,729.44.