Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 17:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 96.2%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète18 nov. 22, 22:55 UTC1 janv. 28, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?
Manifold MarketsBen Roberts-Smith found guilty of war crimes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022
Manifold MarketsSPLC found guilty in 2026?
PolymarketWill Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court.
- If there is no court judgement but I am 99% confident that they have done fraud (eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources).
- There will be an open survey with at least the options "Yes" and "Not enough information" .
- If 70% of people answer "Yes" then this market will resolve "Yes".
- This survey cannot be repeated for 3 months.
- If the market doesn't resolve "Yes", it resolves "No" at close date.
