Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 27 oct. 2026, 06:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète25 mars 23, 22:38 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves positively if, by 2030-12-31, 75% or more of US residential homes are sold without an intermediary (a realtor).
- Online exchanges do not count as an intermediary for purposes of this market, except if they employ human brokers that typically spend 2 hours or more on each transaction.
- I will use whatever sources seem most credible in resolving this market.
- A few example sources that suggest residential real estate is not currently disintermediated are the National Association of Realtors (which says 85%+ of 2022 residential real estate transactions were brokered), the Close (which appears to be a real estate newspaper and says that 92% of residential real estate transactions were brokered), and also personal experience, where most people I know use a realtor when selling their house.
- If several respectable news organizations report that over 75% of US residential homes are sold sans intermediary, that would be pretty convincing for me to resolve positively.
