Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.2%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète21 janv. 24, 15:25 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Using data from here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA
- The last time it was above 2 was before 2008 financial crisis.
- Will we see it get back up above 2 by the end of the decade?
- Will resolve YES if any year is recorded with a fertility rate greater than 2, even if it comes back down by 2030.
- The last year in scope will be 2029, but resolution will have to wait for final stats to be reported for 2029.
