Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will trump make another absurd promise? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 91.1% au 27 octobre 2026.

Quand Will trump make another absurd promise? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will trump make another absurd promise? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 91.1%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 6 heures

Obsolète

13 sept. 26, 17:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 18:12 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a new, distinct policy promise between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, that is deemed "absurd" by a majority of voters in a community poll.
To resolve the market:
The promise must be new and announced after the market's creation (thus excluding previous proposals like the $5,000 "Trump dividend").
If Trump makes a new prominent promise that is widely characterized by media, analysts, or the public as highly unrealistic or absurd, a poll will be conducted among Manifold users to determine if it meets the "absurd" threshold.
If a simple majority of voters in the poll agree that the promise is absurd, this market resolves to YES.