Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95.8%
Prévisionnistes
52
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète9 nov. 24, 10:07 UTC17 nov. 28, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tim Walz be the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028?
Manifold MarketsTim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
KalshiWill Tim Walz resign by which date?
PolymarketWill Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota?
Manifold MarketsTim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
LimitlessWill AOC run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria clarification:
- Market resolves YES if Tim Walz makes a credible declaration to run for President in 2028
- He only needs to show measurable signs of being serious about running
- He does NOT need to win the Democratic nomination
- Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Formal announcement + credible attempt at raising funds would very likely be sufficient for YES resolution.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Tim Walz run for President in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Tim Walz run for President in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Tim Walz run for President in 2028? doit être résolu le 17 novembre 2028.
- Comment Will Tim Walz run for President in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria clarification: