Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67.9%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 25, 23:23 UTC20 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will this question get 100k traders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill this question get 111 traders in 555 days? (October 23, 2026) UTC
Manifold MarketsWill this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRègles
Background Manifold prediction markets vary widely in trader participation, with factors like topic relevance, market duration, and visibility influencing engagement.
- Markets about meta-predictions (predictions about the market itself) can create interesting feedback loops where trader behavior directly influences the outcome.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the total number of unique traders who have placed at least one trade on this market exceeds 999.5 by January 1, 2030 at 12:00 AM UTC.
- Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- The number of traders can be verified through Manifold's public API and market statistics.
- Considerations
