Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.8%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 14:38 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
TLDR: If another similar blackout (such as the one from April 2025), happens before the end of 2026, it resolves YES.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Spain experiences a nationwide blackout affecting mainland peninsular Spain (excluding islands), that affects a significant portion of the country's electricity grid.
- Resolution will be based on official statements from Red Eléctrica (Spain's grid operator) or Spanish government sources confirming a nationwide blackout event.
- The market resolves NO if no such event occurs by the end date.
- On April 28, 2025, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas.
