Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 82.2%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète9 févr. 24, 15:26 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe next major foreign terrorist attack in the US will be at
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
- Shorter-term version:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined.
- For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change.
- So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.
