Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 96.2%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète1 mars 26, 20:58 UTC15 août 29, 22:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the next UK General Election take place?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Ukrainan presidential election take place?
Manifold MarketsWill the 🇺🇸 2028 Presidential Election take place as scheduled?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The next UK general election is scheduled no later than 15 August 2029, as Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 and will automatically dissolve five years later unless dissolved earlier.
- This market resolves YES if a general election takes place before 15 August 2029, and NO if the election is held on or after that date.
- Resolution will be determined by the official announcement of polling day by the UK Electoral Commission at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.
- Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the Prime Minister has the power to request the monarch call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session, or Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met with an election held 25 working days after dissolution.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? doit être résolu le 15 août 2029.
- Comment Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria