Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 93.6% au 29 octobre 2026.

Quand Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2050.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 93.6%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes

2 févr. 24, 18:28 UTC2 janv. 50, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.