Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.7%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète5 août 23, 14:16 UTC1 déc. 52, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves Yes if any of the following happen without a woman having first been elected president:
- A person who identifies as non-binary is elected president
- A presidential election is delayed beyond the end of an election year
- The US is dissolved
- The US switches to a parliamentary or other system without a president
- Something happens after the 2048 elections, but before 2052 after the question has resolved which might otherwise count as "a woman being elected president before 2052" but the question has resolved already (note therefore the expiration date of this question is the 2052 elections)
