Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
MétéoOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.9%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète30 oct. 23, 15:05 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
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Règles
"Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).
- Notably, this does not include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct-air capture (DAC), biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS), enhanced weathering (EWR), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), or other techniques that simply reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
- The IPCC definition of solar geoengineering also (somewhat contentiously) does not include surface albedo enhancement (e.g. painting rooftops white).
- "Significant scale" here is somewhat arbitrarily defined as having an estimated net decrease in radiative forcing of at least 1 W/m2 for at least one month (about a ~0.4% increase in planetary albedo).
- This would correspond to a net sulfur injection of about 5 Mt/y for the most commonly discussed SAI technique -- about 0.25 Pinatubos per year.
- I will not bet in this market.
