Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 78.7%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 23, 18:06 UTC1 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if a post made by @ScottAlexander (e.g. on Astral Codex Ten) between 2023-09-11 and 2034-12-31 (inclusive) is an "all-time" post in my judgement by the end of 2034.
- UTC times will be used.
- Only posts by Scott count.
- For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).
- Motivation: Meditations on Moloch was written about ten years ago.
- It is widely acknowledged as a seminal post both on Slate Star Codex, as well as in the rationalist discourse.
