Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 03:24 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 93.8%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 24, 05:12 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first video generation model cost >$0.10/minute?
Manifold MarketsWill the first video generation model cost >$0.01/minute?
Manifold MarketsTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2030, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
