Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.7%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète1 avr. 26, 10:53 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Semina..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "OpenAI's myopia keeps causing alignment problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Alignment (and we need the latter to survive) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.