Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 50.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 56 minutes
En retard15 avr. 26, 04:17 UTC15 avr. 36, 04:11 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketWill "Don't Sell Stock to Donate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES iff, by market close, a Nectome Cumulative Discount Card sold by Nectome in 2026 is verifiably sold on an aftermarket for at least 60,000 USD (or equivalent in some other currency at time of sale).
- In other words, if Nectome succeeds as a business, and someone who bought the card for $20k in 2026 sells the discount to someone else for $60k or more, this resolves YES.
- If May 2036 comes along and I cannot find any evidence of such a sale, it resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 351,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 351,4 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 k €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 résultats de plus
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036? doit être résolu le 15 avril 2036.
- Comment Will a Nectome discount card sell for at least $60k before 2036? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES iff, by market close, a Nectome Cumulative Discount Card sold by Nectome in 2026 is verifiably sold on an aftermarket for at least 60,000 USD (or equivalent in some other currency at time of sale).