Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
ChineOne-OffIASanté et médecine7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 61.6%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 33 minutes
27 mai 23, 23:08 UTC2 mai 34, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results.
- If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.
- If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model.
- I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.
- Here is the prompt
- Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.
