Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 22 octobre 2026.

Quand Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 99%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes

31 août 23, 18:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Katalin Karikó (see Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katalin_Karik%C3%B3) pioneered the science behind mRNA vaccines.

She has many of the major awards that normally preceed a Nobel Prize (Japan Prize, Lasker, &c), but has not yet won a Nobel Prize.
Resolves YES if she wins any Prize in 2026 even if shared.
This market will resolve once all the science prizes are announced (or earlier if she announced as a winner), which should be the case by mid October 2026.
Note that this market is for 2026 specifically, if she wins before, that will not count towards this market! A potential earlier win will also not immediately resolve NO because there is a chance she will be awarded a Prize in multiple years.