Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.2%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète10 janv. 26, 13:07 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Josh Shapiro win the Pennsylvania general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExWill Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Manifold MarketsWill Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Manifold MarketsJosh Shapiro margin of victory
KalshiWill Josh Shapiro win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Josh Shapiro wins the general election and NO if he loses.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the Pennsylvania Department of State (https://www.pa.gov/en/government/how-government-works/elections.html).
- Shapiro announced in January 2026 that he would run for reelection to a second term.
- Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano by 15 points.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
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- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Josh Shapiro be reelected ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Josh Shapiro be reelected sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Josh Shapiro be reelected doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will Josh Shapiro be reelected est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria