Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 26, 03:41 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
FutuurWill JD Vance assume the presidency of the United States before the 2029 Inauguration?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
PolymarketWill JD Vance and Usha Vance announce a divorce by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsJD Vance out as VP by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES iff JD Vance, the 50th vice president of the United States, assumes presidential powers at any point for any duration, even temporarily, in 2026.
- This includes:
- The Vice President becoming President in case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation
- The Vice President assuming powers as Acting President when the President transmits a written declaration of inability to discharge the powers and duties of his office
- The Vice President immediately assuming the powers and duties of the office as Acting President when the Vice President and a majority of principal officers of the executive departments transmit a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria