Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?
One-OffCryptoRégulation3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.3%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète27 juin 25, 01:42 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if credible evidence is made public before January 1, 2030, that the Monero protocol or its cryptographic primitives are compromised as of this market being created.
- The nature of the compromise must meaningfully affect Monero's privacy or fungibility guarantees - such as a backdoor in its ring signatures, zero-knowledge proofs, or stealth addressing mechanisms enabling de-anonymization or tracing of transactions.
- Evidence must be reported by a credible cryptographic researcher, cybersecurity firm, leaked government document, or whistleblower, and receive significant coverage from reputable sources (academic publications, major legacy news outlets, or promonant cryptography blogs).
- Purely theoretical attacks / unfounded speculation do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
