Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 50.2%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 26, 17:35 UTC1 sept. 28, 23:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
KalshiWill members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
Manifold MarketsIf US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?
Manifold MarketsNasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
PolymarketS&P 500 (SPX) close at the final trading day of 2026
FutuurRègles
I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.
- I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.
- From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return.
- This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.
- The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well.
- I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes.
Marchés ouverts
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.3pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,6 k €
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9916.8%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9914.9%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9911.2%
+24 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 5,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 79,6 k €
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 185,8 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt16.5%
- 30,000 to 30,499.99+1.0pt7.2%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-2.0pt6.2%
+27 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- ↓ $182+8.9pt100%
- ↓ $180+26.9pt100%
- ↓ $178+46.0pt100%
+17 résultats de plus
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- STRC hits $100 by…
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks? doit être résolu le 1 septembre 2028.
- Comment Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.