Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionCriminalité et justice2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.1%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète12 avr. 26, 20:55 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is physically incarcerated in a jail, prison, or other correctional facility on Election Day (November 7) 2028.
- The market resolves to "No" if he is not incarcerated on that date.
- Resolution will be based on reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal) confirming his custodial status on that day.
- If his status is unclear or if he is under house arrest, electronic monitoring, or probation without being held in a correctional facility, the market will resolve to "No.”