Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.1%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète12 avr. 26, 20:55 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eric Swalwell win the California general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExEric Swalwell charged by September 30?
PolymarketWill Eric Swalwell be elected the next Governor of California?
Manifold MarketsEric Swalwell arrested by September 30?
PolymarketEric Adams charged by December 31?
PolymarketWill anyone face federal charges tied to Fulton County’s 2020 election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is physically incarcerated in a jail, prison, or other correctional facility on Election Day (November 7) 2028.
- The market resolves to "No" if he is not incarcerated on that date.
- Resolution will be based on reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal) confirming his custodial status on that day.
- If his status is unclear or if he is under house arrest, electronic monitoring, or probation without being held in a correctional facility, the market will resolve to "No.”
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2028.
- Comment Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria