Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 75.6%
Prévisionnistes
84
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète31 déc. 23, 22:36 UTC2 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump outlive any of his children?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWho will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
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KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
- If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
Marchés ouverts
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.