Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.5%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 10:20 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?
PolymarketWill China become more authoritarian in 2026?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China become democratic before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China become democratic before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China become democratic before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will China become democratic before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria