Will China announce a nationwide policy to materially slow frontier AI development before December 31, 2027
ChineOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87%
Prévisionnistes
0
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 oct. 26, 00:33 UTC30 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, a Chinese central-government body announces a new nationwide policy explicitly intended to slow or limit frontier AI development.
- Examples include a moratorium or cap on frontier-model training, approval requirements for large training runs, nationwide limits on AI compute expansion, or a stated pause in frontier AI development.
- Ordinary AI regulation, content rules, model registration, efficiency requirements, foreign-technology restrictions, and local policies don't qualify unless they are part of a nationwide central-government policy.
- Vague statements about “responsible” or “orderly” AI development do not qualify.
