Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueChine9aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.5%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète7 sept. 26, 06:08 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
There could be many potential reasons, one is that AGI could become extremely dominating militarily in a way that gives the state high (bargaining) powers
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at 11:59 PM PT, California has officially seceded from the United States or is otherwise formally recognized as an independent, sovereign nation-state separate from the United States federal government.
- To resolve to YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met:
- De Facto Sovereignty (similar to Taiwan): California successfully establishes full military and political autonomy, completely voids U.S. federal jurisdiction over its territory, and obtains formal diplomatic recognition as an independent state from the United States or admission as a member state of the United Nations.
- Federal Recognition: The United States federal government officially recognizes California's secession and sovereign independence through an Act of Congress, a ratified constitutional amendment, or a binding Supreme Court ruling.
