Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?
BitcoinOne-OffCryptoMiddle EastCommoditiesGéopolitique22jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.9%
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
5 mai 26, 07:26 UTC1 oct. 26, 12:00 UTC
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $85,000 USD at any point before the Strait of Hormuz is officially designated as "freely open" by a consensus of international maritime governing bodies or major geopolitical authorities.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- For the price of Bitcoin, the market will use the daily closing price as reported on CoinMarketCap.
- Regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, "freely open" refers to the absence of significant state-imposed blockades, active military seizure of commercial vessels, or officially declared closures by relevant regional authorities (primarily Iran) that impede international shipping traffic.
- In the event of ambiguity, resolution will rely on reports from authoritative maritime security organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) or major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) confirming that shipping traffic is unencumbered by formal state intervention.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquified natural gas and oil transit.