Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 91.1% au 26 octobre 2026.

Quand Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2050.

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Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 91.1%

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Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

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Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 15 heures

Obsolète

4 oct. 23, 08:36 UTC1 janv. 50, 22:59 UTC

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Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Ever since its incorporation into the German Empire in 1871, calls for a Bavarian independent state have been loud and numerous.

As one of Germany's most populous and richest states with a strong regional identity, Bavarian separatists argue that the German government infringes on its sovereign rights and worsens quality of life by taking resources away from Bavaria through financial redistribution, for example.
In some ways, it's reminiscent of other separatist movements such as those of Scotland or Catalonia.
[image]However, according to a 2017 YouGov poll, only 32% of Bavarians would support independence, and the only party in favour of it (Bavaria Party) does not currently have enough votes to enter parliament.