Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
Amérique latineOne-OffIADivertissementMusiqueEurope2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard13 juin 26, 13:34 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
