will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}
One-OffBox Office / StreamingDivertissement3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.8%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 26, 07:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Star Trek movie be released?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the live-action Legend of Zelda movie be released?
Manifold MarketsRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiHow many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 season?
KalshiWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any movie with a worldwide theatrical release date in 2026 earns more than $2,923,710,708 in total worldwide box office gross.
- Resolution will be determined using data from Box Office Mojo, which tracks cumulative worldwide box office totals including all theatrical releases and re-releases.
- The threshold is based on Avatar's estimated $2.92 billion worldwide gross, which remains the highest-grossing movie of all time.
- Avatar (2009) earned an estimated $2.92 billion at the box office worldwide, putting it ahead of "Avengers: Endgame" at $2.8 billion.
- Avatar's 2022 sequel "Avatar: The Way of Water" brought audiences back to Pandora for a global box office gross of $2.32 billion, demonstrating that even the most successful sequels have struggled to approach the original's record.
Marchés ouverts
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIHow many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 season?
- above 13,500,000-5.0pt85%
- above 13,750,000+1.0pt81%
- above 14,000,000+1.0pt75%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 123,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 15 k €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 55+1.0pt99%
- Above 50+2.0pt99%
- Above 45+3.0pt99%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 339,4 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- The Gentlemen: Season 2+29.1pt66.7%
- Instadocs: The Decoy Plane-14.5pt27.3%
- Crew Girl: Season 1-0.8pt3%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 7099%
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 83,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7 k €
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 6M++34.5pt98%
- 8M++13.5pt77%
- 10M+-1.0pt49%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill The Batman: Part II be delayed?
- No-0.5pt89.1%
- Yes+0.5pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 4,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 €
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- Will "Oasis: Don’t Look Back In Anger" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} sera-t-il résolu ?
- will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria