Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78.8%
Prévisionnistes
58
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète22 déc. 22, 01:22 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Devansh have a *liquid* net worth of at least $1M on January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?
Manifold Marketswil a person have a net worth of 1 trillion in 2030
Manifold MarketsElon Musk Net Worth on September 30?
PolymarketElon Musk net worth on December 31, 2026
KalshiMichael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026
KalshiRègles
By "liquid" I mean "can reasonably direct 100M of their own capital to whatever they want." / "not fake VC valuations."
- EDIT: This includes donations/money spent in a personal capacity).
- See comments.
Marchés ouverts
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 180,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 180,1 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 182,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,4 k €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : By "liquid" I mean "can reasonably direct 100M of their own capital to whatever they want." / "not fake VC valuations."