Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.1%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
8 août 26, 07:13 UTC1 janv. 28, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWe're in an economically stagnant decade (2022-2032)
Manifold MarketsLeap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRègles
Codename: TAKEOFF
- Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher.
- The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward.
- The central general-ECI value in Epoch’s canonical score file controls—not confidence bounds or domain-specific scores.
- If Epoch changes its scale or stops publishing useful scores, MNX will use its published conversion or the closest credible reconstruction of the same threshold.
- Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
Marchés ouverts
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 3,4 M €
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 70% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Codename: TAKEOFF