Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.9%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
26 oct. 26, 15:22 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsHurricane Kyle category?
KalshiWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Santa Rosa, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill a named tropical cyclone make landfall in Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia between June 1 and November 30?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if the US National Hurricane Center names a new tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of America) between the creation of this market and 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2026.
- Since Josephine was the season's tenth named storm, the next name on the list is Kyle.
- What counts: the NHC issues an advisory with the system at tropical-storm or subtropical-storm strength (39 mph / 34 kt or more) and gives it a name, with that first named advisory dated on or before November 30 (UTC).
- A tropical depression that never gets named does not count.
- Eastern and Central Pacific storms do not count.
- Source: NHC advisories and the active-storms list at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/).
