Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 77.8% au 27 octobre 2026.

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

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Mis à jour il y a 15 heures

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6 févr. 23, 19:12 UTC31 déc. 40, 23:59 UTC

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This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal.

That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm: Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?