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Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète19 juin 25, 22:13 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsChess.com Woman Player of the Year Winner
KalshiChess.com Player of the Year Winner
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketRègles
The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.
- I am going with an academic definition of LLM (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model)
- All meaningful computation must be done on the network, thus Monte Carlo Search is disallow, but recurrent nets are allowed
- Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An LLM that acts as an agent that uses tools or writes its own algorithm for depth search will not count towards a YES resolution.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.