Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: No (88.5%)
Résolu: 1 janv. 2025, 22:29
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 sept. 2026, 03:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes11.5%
No88.5%
NonGagné
OuiPerdu
Règles
This is a follow-up to https://manifold.markets/NLeseul/will-an-artificial-agent-ascend-in.
- While a program called BotHack did successfully ascend in 2014, it made use of a strategy called "pudding farming" which allows it to amass all items necessary for ascension in a reliable way.
- More recent versions have made changes to the game rules so that players can no longer benefit from pudding farming and need to use more creative strategies to gather items.
- Late in 2021, a competition was held at the NeurIPS conference to see if any team could build an agent capable of completing the well-known roguelike game NetHack.
- It also aimed to compare approaches using neural networks to those using symbolic logic.
- Ultimately, there were no complete runs of the game by any agent submitted, and symbolic algorithms significantly outperformed neural networks on the challenge's scoring criteria.