Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
SportOne-OffChessMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète8 août 26, 07:13 UTC1 janv. 28, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWe're in an economically stagnant decade (2022-2032)
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk buy a major sports team before 2027?
KalshiCanada home price above C$700K in December?
KalshiBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Codename: LEAP
- Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record.
- “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model.
- Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count.
- The score must be published by April 30, 2028.
- Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump.
Marchés ouverts
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 3,4 M €
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Codename: LEAP