Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?
MétéoOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 28 minutes
7 janv. 24, 15:08 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved.
- I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.
- Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.
