Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Niftski 45.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Niftski 45.3%Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 août 26, 20:11 UTC1 janv. 30, 21:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
Manifold MarketsWill a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
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PolymarketWorlds 2026: Winner
PolymarketRègles
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.
