Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Niftski 45.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète6 août 26, 20:11 UTC1 janv. 30, 21:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Niftski à 45% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
