Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:59 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%En tête parmi 18 options
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%Prévisionnistes
240
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 23, 07:46 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030?
Manifold MarketsJFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040
Manifold MarketsTrump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to the rough consensus among non-US-state-affiliated scholars, researchers, and historians of the identity of the final orchestrator of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at the start of 2030 (or N/A if no such consensus exists).
- "Final orchestrator" means the entity most responsible for directly initiating the chain of events that led to the assasination.
- If the CIA enlisted the mafia to help with the assassination, this will resolve 100% CIA.
- If the CIA and mafia are co-equal partners in carrying out the assasination, this will resolve 50% CIA, 50% mafia, etc.