Prévision communautaire actuelle
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%En tête parmi 51 options
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Prévisionnistes
180
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
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Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 25, 23:47 UTC1 janv. 01, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat me in a game of chess by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
