Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20263mois
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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 00:25 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Earlier this year, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider incumbent candidates in 2026 (whether or not they win their race).
- 2024's worst performing incumbents were Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) at D+17.7 and Representative Ilhan Omar (D:MN-05) at R+13.1.
- This question will be resolved to the single worst performing incumbent in all of Congress.
- https://split-ticket.org/full-wins-above-replacement-war-database/
