Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2030 or later 51.8%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 mai 25, 08:22 UTC30 déc. 30, 09:19 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWill Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the official release date of "The Winds of Winter," the sixth novel in George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series.
- The release date will be determined based on announcements from reputable sources such as the author's official blog, publisher statements, or major news outlets.
- The date will correspond to the first official publication of the book in any format (e.g., hardcover, paperback, e-book) in any country.
- As of May 2025, "The Winds of Winter" remains unpublished.
- George R.R. Martin has been working on the novel since at least 2010, following the release of "A Dance with Dragons" in 2011.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 342,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 91,2 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 182,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 90,8 k €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 264,6 k €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 84,3 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the Winds of Winter be released ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2030 or later à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the Winds of Winter be released sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the Winds of Winter be released doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2030.
- Comment When will the Winds of Winter be released est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria