Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNot before 2050 38.8%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 août 25, 11:55 UTC1 janv. 50, 10:49 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will China invade Taiwan
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessRègles
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year).
- This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
